Fever, headache and cough… And a feeling of déjà vu? If these symptoms strike you this September, it is possible that it is (again) Covid. The latest figures and measurements indeed show an upward progression in cases which is becoming more pronounced these days. The beginnings of a new wave throughout France? Caution.
Covid: visits to emergency rooms have increased more than sixfold since June
The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 is showing signs of recovery in France as autumn approaches. According to government data available as of August 24, emergency room visits for suspected Covid increased from 10.9 per 100,000 visits on June 1 to 66 per 100,000 on August 24. That’s a multiplication by more than six in less than three months.
A figure which may impress, but which must be put into perspective.
The level observed remains much lower than that recorded last fall: in October 2025, the indicator had reached 494.2 passages per 100,000.
And the latest data from Public Health France show that, at the end of August, visits to emergency departments for suspected Covid increased by 31% over one week, while remaining at levels lower than those observed in previous years.
In other words, the virus is circulating more, but the hospital situation does not, for the moment, resemble that of a new Covid crisis.
Sewage had raised the alarm
This increase in circulation does not come completely by surprise. For several weeks, another indicator has attracted attention: that of wastewater. These currently show a slight increase in viral circulation, even if the situation is not identical everywhere in France.
Why is this indicator interesting? “Wastewater is an early indicator of viral circulation”recalls Dr. Gérald Kierzek. They make it possible to detect traces of SARS-CoV-2 shed by infected people, including those who do not show symptoms or do not get tested.
But the doctor warns against drawing conclusions too quickly: an increase in wastewater is not enough to predict the scale of a possible wave.
“We are not yet at a new wave”
So, should we expect a new wave of Covid this fall? For Dr Gérald Kierzek, the answer is clear: not in the sense of a worrying wave at this stage.
“We are observing a signal of resumption of the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 as the fall approaches, but no new significant wave or hospital tension”reassures the doctor.
To truly speak of an epidemic wave, several indicators must point in the same direction:
- A clear and lasting increase in contamination;
- Consultations, visits to the emergency room, hospitalizations;
- In the most severe situations, critical care admissions and mortality.
However, for the moment, the picture is different.
The virus is circulating more. Emergency visits are increasing. But the levels remain limited and no signal of hospital saturation linked to Covid is currently observed.
“We must therefore talk about a seasonal rebound to be monitored rather than an alarming situation,” believes Dr. Kierzek.
Why fall could be a game changer
Still, the calendar is not trivial. The start of the school year brings together several conditions favorable to the transmission of respiratory viruses.
Schools and universities are reopening their doors, employees are returning to offices, transport is filling up and activities are gradually moving to enclosed spaces. Often with less ventilation.
To this will be added in the coming weeks the circulation of other respiratory viruses, in particular those responsible for the flu, RSV or ENT infections.
Covid no longer necessarily obeys a strictly winter seasonality. Rebounds may occur at other times of the year. Autumn nevertheless constitutes a particularly favorable period for the resumption of the circulation of respiratory viruses.
“The challenge is less to predict a precise date than to monitor the speed of progression of the virus and especially its impact on vulnerable people“emphasizes Dr. Kierzek.
And if the symptoms return, what should we do?
Fever, cough, headache, unusual fatigue, sore throat… These symptoms can correspond to Covid, but also to many other respiratory viruses. It is therefore impossible to know solely from the symptoms which virus is responsible for the infection.
In the event of respiratory symptoms, however, some reflexes remain useful:
- Avoid contact with vulnerable people as much as possible;
- Wear a mask when proximity is unavoidable;
- Ventilate rooms regularly, especially during meetings, on transport or in the presence of vulnerable people.
“Particular vigilance is recommended for the elderly, immunocompromised, suffering from certain chronic illnesses or pregnant people, for whom vaccination may be offered according to the recommendations of the upcoming campaign”.
In the event of shortness of breath, chest pain, confusion, rapid worsening of general condition or in a person particularly at risk, rapid medical consultation is necessary.
“Covid is not the only problem“
Behind the question of a possible new wave ultimately arises another question: is our health system strong enough to absorb a new influx of patients?
For Dr Gérald Kierzek, the problem goes far beyond Covid alone.
“The potential crisis is above all structural. It is linked to emergencies, intensive care units and hospital capacities already under pressure, or even permanently saturated due to a chronic lack of resources and personnel. Flu, Covid or heatwave episodes are then only indicators, the symptoms of a more global illness in our health system”.
A remark which also puts the current figures into perspective: the risk does not lie only in the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2, but in the capacity of the system to absorb several epidemics simultaneously.
Because a wave of Covid would not necessarily arrive alone. If it were to combine this fall with significant circulation of influenza, RSV and other respiratory infections, the pressure could quickly shift to medical offices, emergency rooms and hospital departments.
For the moment, there is nothing to indicate a new large wave of Covid in France. But the virus is starting to circulate again and the indicators are starting to rise again. The coming weeks will above all allow us to know whether this is a simple seasonal rebound… or the start of a more significant progression.