What if a simple glass of milk at breakfast weighed, in the long term, on your risk of stroke? A Japanese team has just tested this idea on a large scale, not by following volunteers, but by simulating what would happen if an entire population drank a little more milk.
Their work focuses on Japanese adults aged 30 to 79, in a country where stroke remains one of the leading causes of death and disability. The question posed is simple: what would happen if everyone met the local recommendation of two servings of dairy per day, or approximately 180 g of milk daily?
Stroke and milk: what the big Japanese simulation shows
The researchers used a Markov cohort model to compare the current situation, with an average consumption of around 61.8 g of milk per day, to a scenario where everyone would suddenly go to 180 g. Over ten years, they project a drop in 7% of strokes and related mortality, i.e. 123,618 strokes and 18,721 deaths avoided out of 1,759,971 expected strokes and 267,544 deaths.
In this same “immediate” scenario, national health expenditure linked to stroke would decrease by 5.1%, or $2,598,230,462 (approximately 2.4 billion euros). A more gradual increase in milk over ten years would give more modest but real effects: −3.2% strokes and deaths, −2.2% costs. The strongest relative gains appear among younger adults, while the absolute number of cases avoided is greatest among those aged 70–79.
Why 180 g of milk per day could influence stroke risk
To explain these projections, the authors recall that the
milk concentrates several key nutrients for the heart and arteries. In the article they write: “Milk is a nutrient-rich food and provides many micronutrients that influence stroke risk. In Japan, it is the main dietary source of calcium, which is inversely correlated with hypertension and stroke. Milk also contains potassium and magnesium, which have been linked to a lower risk of stroke“, they summarize in Nutrients.
These minerals help regulate blood pressure, via relaxation of the vessels and a better balance with sodium. Meta-analyses cited by the team indicate that an increase of 200 g of milk per day in the Asian population is associated with a relative risk of stroke of 0.82, or approximately 18% lower risk. The authors also point out that a drop of 5 mmHg in systolic blood pressure is accompanied by a reduction of approximately 29% in the risk of stroke.
A habit that can be transferred to your plate… with caution
The study remains a simulation, built from observational data; no trial asked volunteers to drink more milk to see if strokes actually decreased. The context is very specific: low consumption of dairy products, particular salty habits, different genetics… One of the authors also works for the industrial company Meiji Co., Ltd., which encourages us to keep a critical eye, without invalidating the results.
In the American press, certain specialists also point out that milk is not a “miracle drug” and that studies have suggested, in high doses, a possible increased risk of certain cancers or skin problems. For a French reader, these data above all suggest that reaching the usual recommendations for consumption of dairy products, without excess and taking into account possible intolerances, could be included among other preventive measures against stroke (well-controlled blood pressure, less salt, physical activity). An additional weapon to discuss on a case-by-case basis with your doctor.