Promising to complete a file before a certain date, saying “just five minutes”… Time flies and estimating it seems impossible. According to psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, this is not an organizational problem but a psychological phenomenon called planning bias. This bias manifests itself when we only focus on the main task without anticipating interruptions or complications. We make overly optimistic estimates, which add up and create unrealistic expectations. However, the planning gap costs time, energy and can damage your reputation. When each task takes longer than expected, we are always late, which creates stress and fatigue. In an article published in Psychology TodayCarlos Alós-Ferrer, researcher in (micro)economics, psychology and neuroscience, and full professor of economics at the Lancaster University Management School, gives some tips for thwarting this phenomenon.
Get to know yourself
Instead of focusing on the work you have to do, focus on concrete data. See how long it took others to complete a similar task. Then think back to the last time you accomplished a similar task yourself. How long did it take you? This works even better if you keep notes (a simple notebook is enough, or an Excel spreadsheet if you prefer). Remember to count not only writing time, but also time spent on research, corrections and formatting.
Add a safety time
Allowing a little extra time is never enough: we tend to systematically underestimate the duration of tasks. To remain realistic, add a percentage to your estimate rather than a fixed time. For example, start with +25%. If that’s not enough, add +50% next time. If you have too much time, reduce the margin slightly. Don’t worry if you sometimes have to add 150% or more: we’re really bad at estimating how much time it takes.
Break your tasks into steps
Estimates for long or complex tasks are difficult to estimate because they contain too many unknowns. Break them down into smaller, more predictable steps and estimate the time for each. It’s easier to estimate the time for “retrieving last quarter’s sales data” than for “finishing the division report.”
Plan backwards
Start with the deadline and work your way back step by step using your previous estimates and safety margins. Then schedule the actual work into your calendar, and add a little extra time to avoid stress.
Make precise plans
Vague commitments and good intentions are not enough. Instead, create specific plans:
- “If it’s 9 a.m. Tuesday, then I spend 30 minutes preparing the proposal outline.” ;
- “Once I have the sales data, then I create the charts for the quarter.”
Psychologists Peter Gollwitzer and Anja Achtziger have shown that this method, although very simple, is surprisingly effective.
The benefits of realistic planning
By learning to estimate time better, you will be less stressed, you will produce better quality work and you will become more reliable. Paradoxically, this will also save you time: if each task is truly completed on time, you are no longer overwhelmed. You find mental space to be creative and time to seize new opportunities. The next time you think, “It’ll only take a few minutes,” pause and think about scheduling bias. The goal is not to become pessimistic, but realistic when faced with the unexpected in the real world.