Knowing how to project yourself into the future and anticipate your chances of living a long life is not a simple exercise of the imagination. It is a key approach that guides our daily health decisions and financial choices.
However, we are not all equal when it comes to this capacity for projection. Recent research shows that our cognitive skills play a determining role in the accuracy with which we estimate our life expectancy.
A direct link between IQ score and longevity predictions
To measure this relationship, Professor Chris Dawson, professor of economics and behavioral sciences at the University of Bath (United Kingdom) studied a panel of nearly 4,000 adults over 50 followed over several years.
By comparing participants’ personal estimates of their chances of survival with predictions from national life tables, the researcher was able to calculate each person’s forecast error. The subjects also took tests of memory, reasoning and language to establish their IQ score.
The results show a direct correlation: people with higher IQs make more accurate predictions about their own life expectancy. In practice, a one standard deviation increase in IQ is accompanied by approximately a 20% reduction in the size of forecast errors. Additionally, estimates of the most intellectually successful people vary much less from one interview wave to the next.
Concrete decisions for health and financial well-being
Having a fairer perception of one’s future directly influences the quality of the choices made on a daily basis. For Professor Dawson, “correctly estimating probabilities leads to better decisions and therefore better outcomes for individuals“An overly optimistic or overly pessimistic view of one’s longevity can indeed be costly on a personal level.
The researcher cites in particular “investment choices, quitting smoking or starting a business“, areas where a poor assessment of the future proves detrimental.
Statistical genetic analyzes also confirm that genetic differences linked to cognitive abilities predict the quality of these predictions, independently of age, health or social environment. In practice, people with higher IQs increase their retirement savings when they expect to live longer, while those with lower IQs take little account of their own estimates.
A more realistic vision, but not a guarantee of health
However, it is appropriate to qualify the scope of these observations. Chris Dawson points out that a high IQ does not in itself ensure you live longer, but helps you have a more realistic idea of your future, with very concrete effects on health, finances and preparation for retirement.
Even though the study focused on adults over 50 and on a specific parameter, the researcher believes that these results could extend to other everyday situations involving risk management. Becoming aware of this mechanism is a first step in learning to assess your risks more objectively.