A study by INED reveals a marked drop in fertility intentions in France. Family ideal revised downwards, concerns about the future, new social standards: younger generations wish more and more often a reduced family – or even no children at all.
Smaller families: a structural trend
In France, as in the rest of Europe, fertility is declining. From 2 children per woman in 2014, the indicator increased to 1.6 in 2024. But beyond the figures, it is the very perception of the ideal family that evolves. According to the ERFI 2 survey carried out by the INED in 2024, the ideal number of children in a family went from 2.7 to 2.3 in twenty-five years. In young women under the age of 30, the desired number even falls on average to 1.9 children.
The two -children’s family standard still dominates, but it no longer has the same meaning. If it once represented a minimum, it is now perceived as a maximum by many young adults. The model of large families, it erased slowly: in 1998, 50 % of respondents considered it ideal to have three or more children; They are only 29 % left in 2024.
Fewer children … and more doubts
This drop in fertility intentions is accompanied by strong uncertainty. Among children under 30, almost a fifth hesitates to answer the very question of knowing if they wish to become parents. This vagueness reflects more global instability: uncertain professional future, difficulties in accessing housing, transformations of marital life.
Concerns about the future also weigh in the balance. Climate crisis, political instability, fear of democratic decline … Young adults very concerned about these issues have significantly intentionally intended to have children. Thus, only 35 % of people aged 25 to 39 “very worried” for future generations are considering a parental project, compared to 46 % in the least worried.
Gender equality: a key factor
The study also highlights a link between representations of gender roles and the will to procreate. In 2024, people who joined an egalitarian vision of gender roles-especially on professional or family spheres-express lower fertility intentions. This is particularly worth for women, who often anticipate a disproportionate parental charge.
These results show that the drop in fertility is not just a temporary crisis or a cyclical reaction. It reflects a deeper recomposition of family standards, personal expectations, and the relationship of individuals in their future in an uncertain world.